CrossFit Games Open workout 14.5 will be released in about 24 hours, and there are many athletes still on edge about qualifying for Regionals.
My overall score is 466, is it too late? Is this likely to disqualify me from Regional qualification?
Remember, the overall score is calculated by summing each of the placings for each Open workout. So if you place 1st, 2nd, 11th, and 1st in the past four workouts within your region, your score is 15 (and your awesome and likely named Emily Bridgers). The score can quickly get jump though, given the huge number of competitors there are… something like 5,000 women in just the South East region.
Let’s look at a simple plot to see what has happened in 2012 and 2013.
Figure 1 shows overall scores against overall placings for women after completion of the Open competition in five Regions across two years. If I were to draw a trend line or linear regression, you’d see a positively sloped line following the center of that cloud of points.
However, there is variation – not all of those points would fall along the trend line. And to make my point clearer, let’s zoom in:
Look at the red line: Any points that lie on the line are individuals who placed 60th overall. Their overall scores ranged from 390 to 508. Similarly, any points on the green line are individuals who placed 48th (the Regionals cut-off for 2014). Their scores ranged from 302 to 435. The minimum score in the Top 60 was 7 attained by Lindsay Bourdon and Julie Foucher of the South East and Central East, respectively.
So there is some overlap in the ranges (years and regions can vary), but the point is that 500 points is a rough cut-off for ‘edge’ athletes. At 466 points after four workouts, there is a lot of pressure to keep the score low in 14.5. Low as in top 50.
I also want to emphasize something. Variation: This is NOT all of it. The data I have is a tiny sub-sample of all the Open data on http://games.crossfit.com. This means that my 500 point cut-off is conservative. With more data, the cut-off will probably increase. Additionally, because no one has made the Top 60 with a score above 508 in my data set, does not mean it can’t or won’t happen this year. The Open is more competitive this year; there are more athletes registered that can cause more dramatic swings in scores… which will only lead to increased variation, and a higher score cut-off for 2014.
Lastly, if it wasn’t obvious, Allison Brager, my wife, is my imaginary CrossFit competitor inquiring about her score and chances of Regional qualification in this year’s Open. I’m a scientist: I’m trying to be objective and realistic. This is not a fluffy, “you can do it”, feel-good, post to encourage her to perform well in 14.5. I sincerely believe she can make it – I would have written this with much more cynicism if I didn’t (she knows that I’ll call her out if chances, acts, or statements are bullshit…).